Seeding
The automatic bids are determined by choosing the highest Massey ranked team (regardless of classification) of each state's
champions. At large bids are taken by selecting the best teams – as chosen by USA TODAY’s sports editors – that did not
win state championships, or play in a state where a higher ranked champion was selected.
After the bracket has been seeded, the computer will run a full PROBABILITY ANALYSIS and project all the winners. Note
that this analysis is equivalent to running millions of simulations and taking the average result. The projections are all
probabilistic statements, such as "Aquinas has a 7% chance of winning the tournament." The projected winner will be the
school with the highest such probability.
Play
Now things will get definitive. Using the probability table, the computer will run one SIMULATION of the first round games.
For each matchup, natural variations in performance will be modeled in conjunction with each team's offensive and defensive
ratings to generate a hypothetical score for the game. As in a real football game, the better team will not always win. The
simulated winner will advance to the next round.
After the first round of scores are generated, the computer will update the bracket and re-run the probability analysis. Then
the 2nd round games will be simulated to obtain scores that determine who advances to the 3rd round. And so on, until the
Massey Virtual National Champion is crowned.
Close
